Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.76 – 142.85

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 2.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.6 ±11.7

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 21.08Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 30.85Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 136.83Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.2 ±13.5

3936RoboBlitz 3936

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 24.55Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 49.23Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 69.07Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2197, 2867, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2197, 2867, 3940

Auto

39.7 21%

Teleop

89.7 48%

Endgame

56.3 30%

Strengths

· 3940 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3936, 9431, 1024

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3936, 9431, 1024

Auto

37.1 27%

Teleop

66.7 48%

Endgame

35.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.8pts

Blue projected score142.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.9
Score range: 118–214
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 136.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.6Season APEX353.2

39.7Auto37.1

89.7Teleop66.7

56.3Endgame35.6

58Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	31
teleop	105	89
endgame	60	24
foul	0	0
total	193	144

Result

Final score

193 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 2.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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