Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.33 – 81.03

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.6 ±12.7

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 15.87Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

71Team Hammond

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 42.78Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3865Riley WildBots

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 15.68Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.7 ±12.4

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 33.6Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 34.3Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 13.13Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9554, 71, 3865

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9554, 71, 3865

Auto

17.1 27%

Teleop

43.2 68%

Endgame

3.2 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5010, 328, 2197

/ 100 compat

Projected

81 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5010, 328, 2197

Auto

18.6 25%

Teleop

25.2 34%

Endgame

29.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.3pts

Blue projected score81pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.7
Score range: 53–102
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 55 vs event baseline 116.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.6Season APEX305.7

17.1Auto18.6

43.2Teleop25.2

3.2Endgame29.3

0Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	20
teleop	6	10
endgame	1	2
foul	5	5
total	18	37

Result

Final score

18 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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