Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.57 – 40.24

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

50 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 14.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150.2 ±13.3

3147Munster Horsepower

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX -4.22Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1555CryoFrost

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 13.69Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10332Carroll Charger Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 13.1Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.1 ±11.2

9071SlicerTech

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 5.72Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX -3.56Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 38.08Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3147, 1555, 10332

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3147, 1555, 10332

Auto

20.6 68%

Teleop

-2.0 0%

Endgame

11.7 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9071, 135, 2867

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9071, 135, 2867

Auto

3.8 11%

Teleop

19.7 59%

Endgame

9.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score22.6pts

Blue projected score40.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.7
Score range: 2–61
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 119.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150.2Season APEX219.1

20.6Auto3.8

-2Teleop19.7

11.7Endgame9.9

38Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	8
teleop	20	7
endgame	12	16
foul	0	10
total	50	41

Result

Final score

50 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 14.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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