Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.46 – 155.4

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248 ±12.2

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 11.09Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 32.02Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 1.35Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.1 ±11.2

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 44.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 32.11Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 78.48Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9554, 1646, 2197

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9554, 1646, 2197

Auto

10.8 30%

Teleop

15.5 43%

Endgame

9.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5402, 328, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5402, 328, 4272

Auto

26.3 18%

Teleop

90.0 60%

Endgame

32.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.5pts

Blue projected score155.4pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.9
Score range: 23–176
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 118.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248Season APEX405.1

10.8Auto26.3

15.5Teleop90

9.9Endgame32.5

21Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	50
teleop	27	144
endgame	20	4
foul	20	0
total	91	198

Result

Final score

91 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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