Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.68 – 176.28

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 56 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.9 ±12.8

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 101.75Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10411G-Code Generals

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 2.93Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 12Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.7 ±11.2

3865Riley WildBots

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 5.09Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 135.2Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 35.99Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 447, 10411, 9530

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 447, 10411, 9530

Auto

22.9 18%

Teleop

78.2 62%

Endgame

24.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3865, 3940, 3494

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3865, 3940, 3494

Auto

36.8 21%

Teleop

94.4 54%

Endgame

44.0 25%

Strengths

· 3940 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.7pts

Blue projected score176.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.6
Score range: 96–197
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.9Season APEX409.7

22.9Auto36.8

78.2Teleop94.4

24.3Endgame44

0Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	53
teleop	74	156
endgame	36	35
foul	5	20
total	141	264

Result

Final score

141 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 56 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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