Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.31 – 53.51

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148 ±12.8

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 31.78Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX -7.28Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10332Carroll Charger Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 10.81Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.5 ±11.2

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX -10.21Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 45.62Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8103Knight Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 18.1Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9119, 10029, 10332

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9119, 10029, 10332

Auto

17.5 53%

Teleop

16.3 50%

Endgame

-0.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 135, 3176, 8103

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 3176, 8103

Auto

0.6 1%

Teleop

34.9 83%

Endgame

6.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35.3pts

Blue projected score53.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.2
Score range: 14–75
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148Season APEX271.5

17.5Auto0.6

16.3Teleop34.9

-0.9Endgame6.5

51Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	17
teleop	47	99
endgame	34	24
foul	0	5
total	94	145

Result

Final score

94 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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