Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.58 – 96.87

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.6 ±11

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 19.43Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 3.12Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 40.03Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.4 ±11.2

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 13.8Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 52.61Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 30.46Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9554, 10434, 45

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9554, 10434, 45

Auto

20.3 37%

Teleop

18.8 35%

Endgame

15.1 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9530, 3494, 6721

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9530, 3494, 6721

Auto

23.8 28%

Teleop

43.1 51%

Endgame

18.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.6pts

Blue projected score96.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.3
Score range: 38–122
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 105 vs event baseline 136.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.6Season APEX370.4

20.3Auto23.8

18.8Teleop43.1

15.1Endgame18.2

7Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	9
teleop	10	34
endgame	3	23
foul	0	10
total	29	76

Result

Final score

29 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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