Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.38 – 210.23

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.8 ±13.3

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 12.35Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 19.08Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9071SlicerTech

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 8.95Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367 ±11.2

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 110.02Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 17.11Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 83.1Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9530, 9554, 9071

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9530, 9554, 9071

Auto

13.6 31%

Teleop

28.2 65%

Endgame

1.8 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 447, 2197, 1024

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 447, 2197, 1024

Auto

37.4 19%

Teleop

117.8 60%

Endgame

42.2 21%

Strengths

· 447 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.4pts

Blue projected score210.2pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.8
Score range: 19–231
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 115.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145.8Season APEX367

13.6Auto37.4

28.2Teleop117.8

1.8Endgame42.2

51Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	27
teleop	3	89
endgame	0	42
foul	0	0
total	14	158

Result

Final score

14 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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