Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.82 – 78.95

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

100 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.6 ±14.5

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 38.25Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 36.56Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3936RoboBlitz 3936

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 7.01Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.1 ±12.8

7477Giddy GOATS

Season APEX 33Event APEX 10.04Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3865Riley WildBots

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 3.74Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 65.17Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3494, 328, 3936

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3494, 328, 3936

Auto

18.2 20%

Teleop

48.7 54%

Endgame

22.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7477, 3865, 829

/ 100 compat

Projected

79 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7477, 3865, 829

Auto

19.5 23%

Teleop

47.8 57%

Endgame

16.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.8pts

Blue projected score79pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.9
Score range: 58–103
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 115.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.6Season APEX209.1

18.2Auto19.5

48.7Teleop47.8

22.7Endgame16.1

20Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	26
teleop	30	44
endgame	39	16
foul	0	0
total	100	86

Result

Final score

100 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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