Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.42 – 117.3

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 62.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.4 ±11.7

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 9.69Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8431Robo-Knights

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 20.4Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 130.33Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.4 ±9.8

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 25.13Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 69.17Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 23Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10434, 8431, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10434, 8431, 3940

Auto

40.5 26%

Teleop

83.5 53%

Endgame

33.4 21%

Strengths

· 3940 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1646, 4272, 6721

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1646, 4272, 6721

Auto

19.4 18%

Teleop

63.0 60%

Endgame

23.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.4pts

Blue projected score117.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.1
Score range: 97–180
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.4Season APEX516.4

40.5Auto19.4

83.5Teleop63

33.4Endgame23.3

139Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	43
teleop	89	106
endgame	57	22
foul	0	50
total	181	221

Result

Final score

181 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 62.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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