Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.07 – 123.63

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.9 ±10.7

3865Riley WildBots

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -13.64Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 59.48Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX -23.77Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.4 ±12.2

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 43.65Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

71Team Hammond

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 43.98Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 36Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3865, 1024, 135

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3865, 1024, 135

Auto

6.4 21%

Teleop

11.3 37%

Endgame

12.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3176, 71, 328

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3176, 71, 328

Auto

19.7 16%

Teleop

93.7 76%

Endgame

10.6 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score22.1pts

Blue projected score123.6pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -101.6
Score range: 2–144
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 112.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.9Season APEX225.4

6.4Auto19.7

11.3Teleop93.7

12.6Endgame10.6

133Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	27
teleop	47	82
endgame	5	13
foul	35	25
total	118	147

Result

Final score

118 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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