Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

245.52 – 196.77

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 89.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520.7 ±9.8

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 100.77Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 74.72Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 70.03Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.3 ±11.2

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 34.95Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 142.61Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3865Riley WildBots

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 19.21Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4272, 3176, 461

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4272, 3176, 461

Auto

36.4 15%

Teleop

150.8 64%

Endgame

49.9 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9119, 1501, 3865

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9119, 1501, 3865

Auto

43.8 23%

Teleop

104.3 54%

Endgame

43.6 23%

Strengths

· 1501 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score245.5pts

Blue projected score196.8pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.8
Score range: 172–271
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 136.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520.7Season APEX353.3

36.4Auto43.8

150.8Teleop104.3

49.9Endgame43.6

41Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	31
teleop	72	77
endgame	43	29
foul	5	0
total	127	137

Result

Final score

127 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 89.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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