Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.14 – 133.36

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.2 ±11.2

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX -20.84Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10332Carroll Charger Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 15.69Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 79.29Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 482.8 ±9.9

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 43.14Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 51.17Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

71Team Hammond

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 39.05Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 135, 10332, 9431

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 10332, 9431

Auto

13.5 19%

Teleop

32.7 46%

Endgame

24.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3494, 4272, 71

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3494, 4272, 71

Auto

20.5 16%

Teleop

82.0 63%

Endgame

27.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.1pts

Blue projected score133.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.2
Score range: 55–152
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 105.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.2Season APEX482.8

13.5Auto20.5

32.7Teleop82

24.3Endgame27.4

36Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	43
teleop	35	127
endgame	9	21
foul	10	0
total	79	191

Result

Final score

79 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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