Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

104.95 – 56.8

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.3 ±10.7

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 48.73Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 1.21Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 55.01Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224 ±11.7

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 47.06Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8103Knight Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -0.96Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 10.7Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5010, 9530, 1024

/ 100 compat

Projected

105 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5010, 9530, 1024

Auto

2.0 2%

Teleop

72.7 74%

Endgame

23.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5402, 8103, 10434

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5402, 8103, 10434

Auto

14.9 32%

Teleop

41.5 90%

Endgame

-10.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105pts

Blue projected score56.8pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.2
Score range: 38–124
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 107.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.3Season APEX224

2Auto14.9

72.7Teleop41.5

23.4Endgame-10.1

173Consistency195

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	14
teleop	57	57
endgame	26	16
foul	0	0
total	127	87

Result

Final score

127 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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