Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.45 – 79.24

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 70.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.5 ±8.8

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 77.63Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 12.47Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 51.35Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.5 ±11.6

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 17.85Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 62.46Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -1.07Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7457, 135, 1646

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7457, 135, 1646

Auto

14.2 11%

Teleop

75.2 57%

Endgame

42.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9453, 829, 9554

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9453, 829, 9554

Auto

30.8 40%

Teleop

31.7 42%

Endgame

13.6 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.5pts

Blue projected score79.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.2
Score range: 60–160
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 105.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.5Season APEX210.5

14.2Auto30.8

75.2Teleop31.7

42.1Endgame13.6

105Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	23
teleop	16	60
endgame	0	31
foul	0	0
total	35	114

Result

Final score

35 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 70.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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