Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.33 – 58.13

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.9 ±12.2

3865Riley WildBots

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 26.25Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3147Munster Horsepower

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 16.42Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 81.66Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.4 ±12.8

10332Carroll Charger Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 22.22Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 14.76Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7477Giddy GOATS

Season APEX 33Event APEX 21.15Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3865, 3147, 9431

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3865, 3147, 9431

Auto

24.3 20%

Teleop

74.4 62%

Endgame

20.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10332, 6721, 7477

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10332, 6721, 7477

Auto

12.7 28%

Teleop

9.8 21%

Endgame

23.6 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124.3pts

Blue projected score58.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.2
Score range: 39–143
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 136 vs event baseline 106.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.9Season APEX202.4

24.3Auto12.7

74.4Teleop9.8

20.7Endgame23.6

30Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	34
teleop	30	15
endgame	30	4
foul	0	0
total	83	53

Result

Final score

83 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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