Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

40.5 – 28.42

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 78.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.1 ±11.7

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX -0.12Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 30.28Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8431Robo-Knights

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 10.34Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.5 ±11.7

1555CryoFrost

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 5.67Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 27.66Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX -4.91Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9453, 1024, 8431

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9453, 1024, 8431

Auto

14.5 42%

Teleop

10.4 30%

Endgame

9.5 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1555, 461, 10434

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1555, 461, 10434

Auto

6.8 38%

Teleop

-1.3 0%

Endgame

12.2 69%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.5pts

Blue projected score28.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.1
Score range: 9–60
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 104.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.1Season APEX246.5

14.5Auto6.8

10.4Teleop-1.3

9.5Endgame12.2

79Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	28
teleop	62	57
endgame	35	8
foul	0	0
total	133	93

Result

Final score

133 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 78.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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