Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.32 – 121.03

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.4 ±11.2

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 75.23Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 89.55Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10332Carroll Charger Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 29.54Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.8 ±12

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 44.12Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 1.55Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 75.36Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1501, 3940, 10332

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1501, 3940, 10332

Auto

41.4 22%

Teleop

94.5 51%

Endgame

49.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2197, 9530, 7457

/ 100 compat

Projected

121 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2197, 9530, 7457

Auto

23.7 22%

Teleop

48.2 44%

Endgame

38.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.3pts

Blue projected score121pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.3
Score range: 103–212
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 102.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.4Season APEX356.8

41.4Auto23.7

94.5Teleop48.2

49.7Endgame38

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	29
teleop	109	57
endgame	68	18
foul	0	5
total	252	109

Result

Final score

252 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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