Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.44 – 90.88

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±9.8

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 43.61Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 34.46Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 24.37Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.7 ±11.7

71Team Hammond

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 22.85Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8432Cyber Knights

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 39.32Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 28.71Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5402, 2867, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5402, 2867, 5010

Auto

13.6 13%

Teleop

62.4 62%

Endgame

25.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 71, 8432, 135

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 71, 8432, 135

Auto

12.6 14%

Teleop

54.8 62%

Endgame

21.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.4pts

Blue projected score90.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.6
Score range: 72–121
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 103.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.3Season APEX159.7

13.6Auto12.6

62.4Teleop54.8

25.3Endgame21.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	3
teleop	111	24
endgame	12	2
foul	5	5
total	139	34

Result

Final score

139 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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