Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.31 – 87.31

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.7 ±12.4

8103Knight Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -1.29Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 24.65Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1555CryoFrost

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 0.95Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.7 ±11.2

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 20.71Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3865Riley WildBots

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 23.13Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 43.47Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8103, 3494, 1555

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8103, 3494, 1555

Auto

3.4 13%

Teleop

19.7 72%

Endgame

4.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5484, 3865, 447

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5484, 3865, 447

Auto

20.6 23%

Teleop

58.4 66%

Endgame

8.9 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.3pts

Blue projected score87.3pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63
Score range: 5–106
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 103.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.7Season APEX223.7

3.4Auto20.6

19.7Teleop58.4

4.1Endgame8.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	9
teleop	29	95
endgame	20	45
foul	0	0
total	61	149

Result

Final score

61 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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