Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
66.24 – 62.83
51%49%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
57 – 62
Prediction missed · off by 5 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 64Event APEX 18.86Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 2.47Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 44.91Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 23.63Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 46.74Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 48Event APEX -7.54Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5484, 1555, 71
53
/ 100 compatProjected
66.2 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 5484, 1555, 71
Auto
16.8 28%
Teleop
33.6 57%
Endgame
8.9 15%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6721, 2197, 10434
44
/ 100 compatProjected
62.8 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 6721, 2197, 10434
Auto
2.0 3%
Teleop
28.8 47%
Endgame
30.5 50%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.32
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score66.2pts
Blue projected score62.8pts
Red win probability51%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 3.4
- Score range
- 44–85
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
154.2Season APEX208.2
16.8Auto2
33.6Teleop28.8
8.9Endgame30.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 17 |
| teleop | 38 | 1 |
| endgame | 1 | 9 |
| foul | 0 | 35 |
| total | 57 | 62 |
Result
Final score
57 – 62
Prediction missed · off by 5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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