Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
64.3 – 84.19
44%56%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
94 – 37
Prediction missed · off by 38.4 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.7 ±11.2
Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 31.41Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 6Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 26.89Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.9 ±11.6
Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 13.38Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 39.71Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 31.1Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 829, 9071, 3494
50
/ 100 compatProjected
64.3 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 829, 9071, 3494
Auto
7.8 13%
Teleop
31.0 50%
Endgame
23.1 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9453, 3147, 9119
59
/ 100 compatProjected
84.2 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 9453, 3147, 9119
Auto
23.9 30%
Teleop
44.4 55%
Endgame
12.0 15%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.58
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score64.3pts
Blue projected score84.2pts
Red win probability44%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -19.9
- Score range
- 45–103
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
369.7Season APEX177.9
7.8Auto23.9
31Teleop44.4
23.1Endgame12
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 33 | 10 |
| teleop | 48 | 8 |
| endgame | 13 | 14 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 94 | 37 |
Result
Final score
94 – 37
Prediction missed · off by 38.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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