Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.64 – 123.67

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.6 ±11.2

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX 16Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 35.75Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 43.89Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 456.9 ±9.8

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 43.89Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 33.75Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 46.03Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10029, 135, 447

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10029, 135, 447

Auto

12.6 14%

Teleop

52.1 58%

Endgame

25.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1646, 9431, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1646, 9431, 1501

Auto

18.5 15%

Teleop

76.2 62%

Endgame

29.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.6pts

Blue projected score123.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28
Score range: 78–142
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 100.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.6Season APEX456.9

12.6Auto18.5

52.1Teleop76.2

25.3Endgame29.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	37
teleop	66	117
endgame	28	59
foul	5	25
total	103	238

Result

Final score

103 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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