Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

236.16 – 289.23

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

296 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 596.9 ±8.8

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 98.19Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 33.75Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 104.22Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.3 ±9.8

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 5.63Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 138.87Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 144.73Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7457, 2867, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7457, 2867, 4272

Auto

35.8 16%

Teleop

126.0 55%

Endgame

65.6 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10434, 3940, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10434, 3940, 1501

Auto

75.0 26%

Teleop

143.3 51%

Endgame

65.4 23%

Strengths

· 1501 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score236.2pts

Blue projected score289.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.1
Score range: 212–313
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 622 vs event baseline 134.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

596.9Season APEX409.3

35.8Auto75

126Teleop143.3

65.6Endgame65.4

21Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	86
teleop	132	167
endgame	112	68
foul	10	5
total	296	326

Result

Final score

296 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 pts

Match videos

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