Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.27 – 183.55

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

303 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.3 ±9.8

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 27.96Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 91.04Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 87.27Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.7 ±11.2

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 58.88Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1018Pike RoboDevils

Season APEX 74Event APEX 58.6Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 66.07Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 135, 3176, 6721

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 3176, 6721

Auto

27.1 13%

Teleop

132.0 66%

Endgame

42.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2867, 1018, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2867, 1018, 234

Auto

30.3 17%

Teleop

100.4 55%

Endgame

51.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.3pts

Blue projected score183.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.7
Score range: 151–239
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 445 vs event baseline 185.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.3Season APEX282.7

27.1Auto30.3

132Teleop100.4

42.1Endgame51

72Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	24
teleop	157	44
endgame	82	69
foul	15	5
total	303	142

Result

Final score

303 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 pts

Match videos

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