Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.65 – 293.33

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.6 ±9.3

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 35.92Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 117.47Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 145.26Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 530.6 ±9.8

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 131.96Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 34.63Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 126.74Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6956, 3494, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6956, 3494, 4272

Auto

61.6 21%

Teleop

163.3 55%

Endgame

70.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 461, 4982, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 461, 4982, 10021

Auto

48.8 17%

Teleop

167.0 57%

Endgame

76.9 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score298.7pts

Blue projected score293.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 4%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.3
Score range: 260–332
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 564 vs event baseline 184.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.6Season APEX530.6

61.6Auto48.8

163.3Teleop167

70.1Endgame76.9

14Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	59
teleop	113	147
endgame	90	75
foul	10	0
total	283	281

Result

Final score

283 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Match videos

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