Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

301.35 – 174.15

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 530.6 ±9.8

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 135.28Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 36.98Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 129.09Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.7 ±11.2

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 55.94Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1018Pike RoboDevils

Season APEX 74Event APEX 55.23Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 62.98Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 461, 4982, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 461, 4982, 10021

Auto

45.0 15%

Teleop

173.6 58%

Endgame

83.1 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 2867, 1018, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2867, 1018, 234

Auto

29.3 17%

Teleop

98.3 57%

Endgame

45.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score301.4pts

Blue projected score174.1pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.2
Score range: 141–334
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 182.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

530.6Season APEX282.7

45Auto29.3

173.6Teleop98.3

83.1Endgame45

12Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	37
teleop	131	54
endgame	51	83
foul	5	0
total	253	174

Result

Final score

253 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Match videos

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