Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.58 – 190.29

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.3 ±9.8

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 22.91Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 86.19Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 81.48Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.4 ±11.7

10332Carroll Charger Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 45.65Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 74.95Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 69.69Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 135, 3176, 6721

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 3176, 6721

Auto

19.4 11%

Teleop

119.2 65%

Endgame

43.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10332, 5402, 829

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10332, 5402, 829

Auto

53.8 28%

Teleop

104.5 54%

Endgame

33.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score190.6pts

Blue projected score190.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.3
Score range: 157–224
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 181.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.3Season APEX284.4

19.4Auto53.8

119.2Teleop104.5

43.9Endgame33.6

79Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	38
teleop	177	61
endgame	33	19
foul	0	5
total	256	123

Result

Final score

256 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 pts

Match videos

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