Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.75 – 229.82

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 246

Prediction missed · off by 51.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.6 ±9.3

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 32.91Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 114.39Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 141.45Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.3 ±9.8

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 35.41Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 99.38Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 95.03Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6956, 3494, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6956, 3494, 4272

Auto

61.3 22%

Teleop

145.1 51%

Endgame

78.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 135, 3176, 6721

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 3176, 6721

Auto

32.7 15%

Teleop

140.6 63%

Endgame

49.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score288.8pts

Blue projected score229.8pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.9
Score range: 196–323
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 189.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.6Season APEX338.3

61.3Auto32.7

145.1Teleop140.6

78.5Endgame49

31Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	55
teleop	82	127
endgame	26	49
foul	0	15
total	202	246

Result

Final score

202 – 246

Prediction missed · off by 51.5 pts

Match videos

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