Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
284.37 – 220.58
69%31%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
289 – 295
Prediction missed · off by 39.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 530.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 31.96Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 128.93Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 283Event APEX 123.48Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.3 ±9.8
Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 32.53Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 96.19Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 91.86Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4982, 461, 10021
82
/ 100 compatProjected
284.4 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 4982, 461, 10021
Auto
47.6 17%
Teleop
161.1 57%
Endgame
74.6 26%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 4%
Blue · 135, 3176, 6721
68
/ 100 compatProjected
220.6 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 135, 3176, 6721
Auto
30.7 14%
Teleop
136.0 63%
Endgame
47.5 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 4%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.2
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score284.4pts
Blue projected score220.6pts
Red win probability69%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 63.8
- Score range
- 187–318
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 584 vs event baseline 187.8.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
530.6Season APEX338.3
47.6Auto30.7
161.1Teleop136
74.6Endgame47.5
23Consistency59
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 37 | 47 |
| teleop | 161 | 173 |
| endgame | 91 | 60 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 289 | 295 |
Result
Final score
289 – 295
Prediction missed · off by 39.5 pts
Match videos
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