Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

388.8 – 296.39

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

451 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 54.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 576 ±8.8

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 235.68Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 18.8Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 134.32Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500.6 ±9.3

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 35.28Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 117.03Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 144.08Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7457, 4580, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7457, 4580, 1501

Auto

102.8 27%

Teleop

215.5 56%

Endgame

65.9 17%

Strengths

· 7457 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6956, 3494, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6956, 3494, 4272

Auto

63.1 22%

Teleop

155.6 53%

Endgame

73.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score388.8pts

Blue projected score296.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.4
Score range: 263–422
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 701 vs event baseline 185.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

576Season APEX500.6

102.8Auto63.1

215.5Teleop155.6

65.9Endgame73.2

40Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	49
teleop	317	90
endgame	54	111
foul	15	0
total	451	250

Result

Final score

451 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 54.3 pts

Match videos

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