Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.08 – 178.4

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

289 – 377

Prediction correct · off by 169.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.5 ±11.2

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 54.59Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 28.53Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 65.96Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 537.3 ±10.2

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 62.1Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 94.59Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 21.71Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1646, 4485, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1646, 4485, 4272

Auto

20.7 14%

Teleop

80.7 54%

Endgame

47.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3494, 7457, 8742

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3494, 7457, 8742

Auto

37.7 21%

Teleop

97.4 55%

Endgame

41.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.1pts

Blue projected score178.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.3
Score range: 121–206
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 666 vs event baseline 156.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.5Season APEX537.3

20.7Auto37.7

80.7Teleop97.4

47.6Endgame41.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	77
teleop	163	222
endgame	98	63
foul	0	15
total	289	377

Result

Final score

289 – 377

Prediction correct · off by 169.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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