Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.57 – 196.94

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.8 ±12.8

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 77.12Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7477Giddy GOATS

Season APEX 33Event APEX 20.13Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3865Riley WildBots

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 19.32Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.3 ±9.8

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 24.7Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 87.9Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 84.34Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5402, 7477, 3865

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5402, 7477, 3865

Auto

26.6 23%

Teleop

58.0 50%

Endgame

32.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 135, 3176, 1646

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 3176, 1646

Auto

26.1 14%

Teleop

121.8 64%

Endgame

42.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.6pts

Blue projected score196.9pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.4
Score range: 84–230
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 181.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.8Season APEX374.3

26.6Auto26.1

58Teleop121.8

32Endgame42.3

60Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	15
teleop	27	109
endgame	47	57
foul	0	0
total	92	181

Result

Final score

92 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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