Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.29 – 124.87

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

424 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 108.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.6 ±13.5

7695Trojan Thunder

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 30.15Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 127.46Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 123.68Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.5 ±12.8

10332Carroll Charger Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 52.67Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 43.11Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 29.09Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7695, 1501, 461

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7695, 1501, 461

Auto

62.1 23%

Teleop

137.4 50%

Endgame

74.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10332, 4982, 9530

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10332, 4982, 9530

Auto

45.4 36%

Teleop

55.2 44%

Endgame

24.9 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score281.3pts

Blue projected score124.9pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.4
Score range: 93–313
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 474 vs event baseline 180.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.6Season APEX187.5

62.1Auto45.4

137.4Teleop55.2

74.2Endgame24.9

20Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	21
teleop	257	19
endgame	84	10
foul	0	0
total	424	50

Result

Final score

424 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 108.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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