Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.99 – 138.42

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 86.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.4 ±12.4

3487Red Pride Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 38.77Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 124.33Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 25.89Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±10.4

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 75.13Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 14.37Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 48.92Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3487, 10021, 4485

/ 100 compat

Projected

189 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3487, 10021, 4485

Auto

34.1 18%

Teleop

101.3 53%

Endgame

54.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6721, 4580, 2867

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6721, 4580, 2867

Auto

25.8 19%

Teleop

84.6 62%

Endgame

26.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189pts

Blue projected score138.4pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.6
Score range: 106–221
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 178.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.4Season APEX296.4

34.1Auto25.8

101.3Teleop84.6

54.1Endgame26.1

13Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	32
teleop	125	142
endgame	113	52
foul	0	15
total	260	241

Result

Final score

260 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 86.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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