Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.99 – 105.02

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.4 ±10.7

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 124.79Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2171RoboDogs

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX -9.39Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 69.59Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.1 ±11.7

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 28.62Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 48.07Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7477Giddy GOATS

Season APEX 33Event APEX 28.33Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 2171, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

185 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10021, 2171, 234

Auto

20.9 11%

Teleop

120.1 66%

Endgame

41.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6956, 4982, 7477

/ 100 compat

Projected

105 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6956, 4982, 7477

Auto

26.9 26%

Teleop

47.5 46%

Endgame

28.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185pts

Blue projected score105pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80
Score range: 73–217
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 180.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.4Season APEX190.1

20.9Auto26.9

120.1Teleop47.5

41.7Endgame28.2

38Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	24
teleop	78	29
endgame	51	14
foul	0	5
total	159	72

Result

Final score

159 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 29.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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