Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.7 – 278.41

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 56.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187 ±12.4

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 20.09Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 18.11Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 40.5Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.3 ±11.2

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 123.22Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 97.66Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1018Pike RoboDevils

Season APEX 74Event APEX 57.53Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9530, 8742, 135

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9530, 8742, 135

Auto

14.1 17%

Teleop

42.1 52%

Endgame

24.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10021, 6721, 1018

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10021, 6721, 1018

Auto

34.3 13%

Teleop

163.4 61%

Endgame

72.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.7pts

Blue projected score278.4pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -199.7
Score range: 44–313
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 194.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187Season APEX479.3

14.1Auto34.3

42.1Teleop163.4

24.7Endgame72.3

29Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	22
teleop	44	97
endgame	16	34
foul	0	15
total	76	168

Result

Final score

76 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 56.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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