Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.24 – 138.55

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.7 ±12.4

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 4.3Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3487Red Pride Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 27.08Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 73.86Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.1 ±12.8

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 77.51Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 21.28Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 39.76Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 328, 3487, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 328, 3487, 234

Auto

24.0 22%

Teleop

58.5 54%

Endgame

25.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3176, 4485, 9530

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3176, 4485, 9530

Auto

27.4 20%

Teleop

52.4 38%

Endgame

56.4 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.2pts

Blue projected score138.6pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.3
Score range: 72–172
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 180.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.7Season APEX251.1

24Auto27.4

58.5Teleop52.4

25Endgame56.4

52Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	37
teleop	18	110
endgame	12	41
foul	0	0
total	68	188

Result

Final score

68 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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