Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.45 – 143.24

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.1 ±11.7

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 42.96Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 60.35Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1018Pike RoboDevils

Season APEX 74Event APEX 51.14Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.7 ±12.4

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 68.37Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3487Red Pride Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 38.99Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7477Giddy GOATS

Season APEX 33Event APEX 35.88Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4982, 1646, 1018

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4982, 1646, 1018

Auto

31.9 21%

Teleop

84.4 55%

Endgame

37.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1741, 3487, 7477

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1741, 3487, 7477

Auto

31.6 22%

Teleop

83.3 59%

Endgame

25.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.5pts

Blue projected score143.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.2
Score range: 111–186
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 176.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.1Season APEX263.7

31.9Auto31.6

84.4Teleop83.3

37.3Endgame25.8

31Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	14
teleop	90	45
endgame	65	16
foul	15	0
total	212	75

Result

Final score

212 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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