Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.42 – 182.55

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

160 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.4 ±11.7

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 82.03Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 53.76Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 7.63Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.5 ±14.5

10332Carroll Charger Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 51.4Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7695Trojan Thunder

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 20.82Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 110.33Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6721, 829, 10172

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6721, 829, 10172

Auto

25.5 18%

Teleop

81.4 59%

Endgame

31.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10332, 7695, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10332, 7695, 10021

Auto

26.9 15%

Teleop

100.8 57%

Endgame

49.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.4pts

Blue projected score182.6pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.1
Score range: 111–215
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 176.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.4Season APEX398.5

25.5Auto26.9

81.4Teleop100.8

31.2Endgame49.5

114Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	58
teleop	70	148
endgame	51	40
foul	10	5
total	160	251

Result

Final score

160 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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