Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

224.79 – 206.95

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 139

Prediction missed · off by 79.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407 ±11.2

2171RoboDogs

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 3.55Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 132.18Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 89.06Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.4 ±10.7

1555CryoFrost

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 42.61Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 25.89Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 138.45Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2171, 1501, 3176

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2171, 1501, 3176

Auto

50.3 22%

Teleop

121.5 54%

Endgame

52.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1555, 135, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

207 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1555, 135, 4272

Auto

35.9 17%

Teleop

111.6 54%

Endgame

58.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score224.8pts

Blue projected score207pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.8
Score range: 175–257
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 177.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407Season APEX365.4

50.3Auto35.9

121.5Teleop111.6

52.5Endgame58.5

42Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	21
teleop	54	69
endgame	31	34
foul	30	15
total	133	139

Result

Final score

133 – 139

Prediction missed · off by 79.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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