Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.16 – 158.84

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.1 ±9.8

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 37.65Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 80.94Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 47.57Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.5 ±12.8

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 23.56Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 122.95Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3865Riley WildBots

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 12.33Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6956, 234, 7617

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6956, 234, 7617

Auto

28.9 18%

Teleop

95.4 58%

Endgame

40.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4485, 461, 3865

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4485, 461, 3865

Auto

41.7 26%

Teleop

64.4 41%

Endgame

52.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.2pts

Blue projected score158.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.3
Score range: 127–198
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 175.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.1Season APEX284.5

28.9Auto41.7

95.4Teleop64.4

40.6Endgame52

108Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	7
teleop	71	106
endgame	23	73
foul	0	0
total	136	186

Result

Final score

136 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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