Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.03 – 101.22

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

356 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619.6 ±9.3

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 108.65Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 103.98Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 80.4Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.8 ±12.8

2171RoboDogs

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 8.06Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7477Giddy GOATS

Season APEX 33Event APEX 33.36Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 59.8Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3494, 10021, 3176

/ 100 compat

Projected

293 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3494, 10021, 3176

Auto

51.7 18%

Teleop

162.4 56%

Endgame

76.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2171, 7477, 1646

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2171, 7477, 1646

Auto

12.5 14%

Teleop

65.9 71%

Endgame

14.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score293pts

Blue projected score101.2pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 191.8
Score range: 70–324
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 174.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619.6Season APEX250.8

51.7Auto12.5

162.4Teleop65.9

76.8Endgame14.1

43Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	21
teleop	210	46
endgame	93	29
foul	0	0
total	356	96

Result

Final score

356 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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