Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

154.41 – 359.15

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.6 ±15.3

7695Trojan Thunder

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 28.92Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1018Pike RoboDevils

Season APEX 74Event APEX 61.09Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

292PantherTech

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 64.4Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.1 ±10.2

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 17.26Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 208.99Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 132.9Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7695, 1018, 292

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7695, 1018, 292

Auto

16.5 11%

Teleop

81.7 56%

Endgame

48.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4485, 7457, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4485, 7457, 1501

Auto

80.1 23%

Teleop

197.0 56%

Endgame

73.9 21%

Strengths

· 7457 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.4pts

Blue projected score359.2pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -204.7
Score range: 123–390
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 505 vs event baseline 172.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.6Season APEX562.1

16.5Auto80.1

81.7Teleop197

48.4Endgame73.9

41Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	135
teleop	31	204
endgame	38	70
foul	0	0
total	96	409

Result

Final score

96 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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