Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.01 – 226.51

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 49.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.3 ±11.7

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 74.03Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 61.26Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 29.72Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321 ±11.2

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 86.56Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 129.66Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 10.29Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6721, 5402, 8742

/ 100 compat

Projected

165 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6721, 5402, 8742

Auto

26.9 17%

Teleop

81.2 52%

Endgame

49.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 234, 461, 10172

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 234, 461, 10172

Auto

43.3 19%

Teleop

132.4 58%

Endgame

51.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score165pts

Blue projected score226.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.5
Score range: 134–258
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 173.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.3Season APEX321

26.9Auto43.3

81.2Teleop132.4

49.1Endgame51

63Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	11
teleop	137	99
endgame	44	67
foul	0	0
total	214	177

Result

Final score

214 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 49.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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