Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.57 – 102.35

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255 ±12.4

1555CryoFrost

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 30.73Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 12.28Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 53.56Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 136.8 ±12.2

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 40.7Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 18.47Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 43.18Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1555, 9530, 1741

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1555, 9530, 1741

Auto

37.6 40%

Teleop

38.9 41%

Endgame

17.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7198, 328, 6956

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7198, 328, 6956

Auto

22.7 22%

Teleop

59.2 57%

Endgame

21.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.6pts

Blue projected score102.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.8
Score range: 66–133
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 174.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255Season APEX136.8

37.6Auto22.7

38.9Teleop59.2

17.7Endgame21.1

67Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	28
teleop	101	41
endgame	49	12
foul	0	0
total	178	81

Result

Final score

178 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 51.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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