Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

154.79 – 208.47

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.6 ±12.2

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 82.1Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

71Team Hammond

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 32.93Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7477Giddy GOATS

Season APEX 33Event APEX 39.76Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.2 ±11.2

3487Red Pride Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 41.17Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 139.79Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 27.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3176, 71, 7477

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3176, 71, 7477

Auto

20.0 13%

Teleop

96.7 64%

Endgame

34.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3487, 1501, 2867

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3487, 1501, 2867

Auto

52.8 25%

Teleop

114.2 55%

Endgame

41.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.8pts

Blue projected score208.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.7
Score range: 123–240
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 175.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.6Season APEX368.2

20Auto52.8

96.7Teleop114.2

34Endgame41

52Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	40
teleop	64	113
endgame	44	46
foul	0	0
total	134	199

Result

Final score

134 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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