Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.82 – 132.31

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.3 ±11.2

3487Red Pride Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 41.04Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 109.51Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 32.27Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.6 ±14.4

7695Trojan Thunder

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 38.45Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 66.44Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 27.42Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3487, 3494, 4982

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3487, 3494, 4982

Auto

57.7 32%

Teleop

73.3 41%

Endgame

49.6 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 7%

Blue · 7695, 5402, 7198

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7695, 5402, 7198

Auto

32.1 25%

Teleop

59.4 46%

Endgame

36.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 7%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.8pts

Blue projected score132.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 7%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.5
Score range: 97–218
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 194.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.3Season APEX215.6

57.7Auto32.1

73.3Teleop59.4

49.6Endgame36.9

40Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	19
teleop	99	30
endgame	48	50
foul	5	0
total	217	99

Result

Final score

217 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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