Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.58 – 301.34

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 18.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.8 ±12.8

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 49.06Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1555CryoFrost

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 29.45Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 11.07Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.3 ±11.4

292PantherTech

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 70.92Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 21.86Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 208.56Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4982, 1555, 10172

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4982, 1555, 10172

Auto

30.8 34%

Teleop

36.6 41%

Endgame

22.0 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 292, 328, 7457

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 292, 328, 7457

Auto

51.9 18%

Teleop

167.3 57%

Endgame

72.0 25%

Strengths

· 7457 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.6pts

Blue projected score301.3pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -211.8
Score range: 58–333
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 178.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.8Season APEX394.3

30.8Auto51.9

36.6Teleop167.3

22Endgame72

52Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	71
teleop	40	179
endgame	34	21
foul	0	0
total	97	271

Result

Final score

97 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 18.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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