Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.96 – 152.18

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.3 ±12.4

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX -3.87Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3865Riley WildBots

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 23.09Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 142.74Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166 ±11.6

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 46.79Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

71Team Hammond

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 41.37Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 64.02Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9530, 3865, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

162 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9530, 3865, 1501

Auto

47.2 29%

Teleop

83.3 51%

Endgame

33.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7198, 71, 4982

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7198, 71, 4982

Auto

27.8 18%

Teleop

95.6 61%

Endgame

32.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162pts

Blue projected score152.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.8
Score range: 120–194
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 177.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.3Season APEX166

47.2Auto27.8

83.3Teleop95.6

33.9Endgame32.1

118Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	31
teleop	64	29
endgame	61	16
foul	5	0
total	175	76

Result

Final score

175 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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